Insights

Volatility, Discernment, and the Talent Gap That Will Decide Outcomes

We’re well into 2026, and three thoughts keep coming back. Less as “predictions” and more as practical realities that will shape how decisions get made, how risk is carried, and how organisations stay resilient without the rigidity.

1. Volatility isn’t a phase. It’s the environment.

The geopolitical and regulatory landscape will likely remain volatile and much of it sits beyond the reasonable control of any business. In that kind of environment, legal judgement remains foundational, but what starts to matter just as much is everything around that judgement:

• the context in which it is given
• how adaptable it is as facts shift
• and the long-term ripple effects it creates in day-to-day business decisions

Because legal advice isn’t delivered in a vacuum. It impacts what the business does – pricing, product choices, vendor strategy, market entry, hiring decisions, and public positioning.

In volatile environments, the difference between “technically correct” and “commercially durable” advice becomes very real.

Here is an example from my own experience.

An organisation was about to launch a new product just as the regulatory framework for that category was changing. A strict reading of the new rules would have meant stopping the launch and disrupting an existing product line.

The right legal answer was neither a blanket no, nor business as usual. We aligned the new product to the updated regulatory classification, while keeping the existing product line compliant through strengthened safety protocols and more disciplined product claims, all aligned to where the regulation was clearly heading. We also put monitoring and controls around the transition.

This allowed the business to continue operating, launch responsibly, and stay aligned with regulatory intent without creating future compliance or reputation risk. That’s what good legal judgement looks like in volatile environments, not blocking progress, not ignoring risk, but designing a path that will still hold up over time.

It’s not just about legal support. It’s decision architecture.

2. AI will force a more uncomfortable question: not what can be done but what should be done

In 2024 and 2025, a lot of the conversation was about capability: what AI can automate, summarise, draft, classify, or review.

In 2026, the debate shifts to: what should we use AI for, and where should we not?

Discernment is a leadership skill, not a technical one. The goal isn’t to maximise AI adoption. The goal is better outcomes. It is about fewer blind spots, faster execution where it’s safe, and human judgement where it’s not.

A legal team that can draw these lines clearly will move faster as well as be more trusted. Without this skill, legal is at the risk of over-relying and possible inaccuracy or under-use and falling behind.

3. The differentiator will be human capability that’s built within, not hired

Organisations often underestimate the need for building capability.

Hiring good people at the right time is one side of the coin. But continuously investing in the team’s ability to operate at the intersection of volatility, regulatory complexity, tech and AI tools and commercial priorities is often a less-considered investment.

In 2026, legal teams will start to integrate these moving parts seamlessly. Organisations will invest in upskilling, training, role design, and strong operating rhythms.

Because tools don’t create capability. People do. And the strongest legal teams won’t just “use AI.” They’ll know how to question it, validate it, stress-test it, and translate it into business decisions with credibility.

The unifying thread

Volatility increases uncertainty and the need to adapt. Technology increases the speed of decisions. Capability determines the quality of decisions.

2026 will belong to legal departments that can combine judgement with context, speed with discernment, and talent with sustained capability-building.

That’s what turns legal from a function that reacts into one that anticipates.